Convoys of mercenaries loyal to Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin advanced toward Moscow on Saturday, intensifying the most serious threat in decades to the authority of President Vladimir Putin who accused them of “treason.”
The insurrection is without precedent in Putin’s nearly quarter-century rule in Russia, jolting a country trying to sustain a war in Ukraine that’s the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. It’s unfolding against the backdrop of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across some of the area where Wagner’s troops deployed for months in the war’s longest and bloodiest battle.
In a televised address to the nation Saturday, a grave-looking Putin said those who “organized and prepared a military mutiny, who took up arms against their comrades, betrayed Russia and will answer for it.” He threatened “harsh” retaliation, calling the uprising “a stab in the back” for the country amid the war.
The mere fact of Putin having to address the Russia people on the issue was a sign of how the Kremlin was caught off guard by the sheer speed of Prigozhin’s advance to the capital, where the president is holed up getting round-the-clock updates.
https://t.co/6LXVc8G1re pic.twitter.com/CpKzCZtrqc
— Bloomberg (@business) June 24, 2023After Prigozhin vowed to lead “a march of justice” on the capital, he posted a video of himself early Saturday at what he said were military offices under Wagner’s control in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, one of the main operational centers for Russian forces deployed in Ukraine.
The claim couldn’t be independently confirmed.
His forces later advanced along the route of the main M4 highway linking Moscow to Rostov. Videos appeared on social media showing military helicopters flying over the city of Voronezh where a fuel storage depot was rocked by an explosion. Regional Governor Alexander Gusev said the depot was on fire, without giving an explanation.
Wagner’s forces were then seen moving through the Lipetsk region about 350 kilometers (218 miles) from Moscow, Governor Igor Artamonov said on Telegram, urging residents to stay in their homes. The governor of nearby Kaluga announced travel restrictions into the region that’s about 160 kilometers (100 miles) from the capital.
Seizing Moment
The question now is whether Prigozhin is able to capitalize on his momentum or whether the revolt fizzles out as the Kremlin strives to gain the upper hand.
While Putin has the support of Russia’s military hierarchy, it’s difficult to assess the response of the army’s lower ranks, Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consulting firm, said on Telegram.
“If orders to open fire are issued, how will individual soldiers react?” she said.
Officials announced a “counter-terrorist regime” in Moscow and its surrounding region as well as in Voronezh region. Photographs appeared on social media of roadblocks on approaches to the capital.
Moscow Lockdown
The Kremlin was taking no chances. Security in Moscow was tightened including around government buildings, and riot police were put on alert, state-run Tass news service reported. Russia opened a criminal case against Prigozhin and the Federal Security Service said it was seeking to detain him.
Putin is “deeply mistaken” to attack Wagner and “nobody is going to turn himself in at the request of the president,” Prigozhin said in an audio post on Telegram. His troops were “patriots” who answered the Kremlin’s call to join the war in Ukraine and don’t want Russia “to continue living in corruption, deception and bureaucracy,” he said.
The US and Europe were closely monitoring the dramatic escalation in a long-running feud between the powerful Wagner founder and Russia’s defense establishment over the faltering invasion. The German government admitted it was taken by surprise, according to officials there. As recently as Friday, a senior government official shared the assumption that Prigozhin was acting on behalf of Putin, the official said.
Group of Seven foreign ministers held a call to discuss the rapidly unfolding events on the ground. A US official argued that it was clear Prigozhin has become a liability for the Russian military, but that no one nearly as effective is waiting in the wings. Even if he were replaced —assuming Putin even can — the Russian military would face the difficult task of managing a disparate group of mercenaries that includes criminals, the official said.
Ukrainian Chance
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the crisis exposed Russia’s “full-scale weakness.”
“We are all ready to die,” Prigozhin said in a separate audio message, claiming Wagner had 25,000 troops involved and another 25,000 who were ready to join. It wasn’t possible to verify those claims.
Putin didn’t name Prigozhin during his five-minute broadcast in which he said “excessive ambitions and personal interests led to treason” against the state and “the cause for which Wagner fighters and commanders fought and died.” He drew a comparison with divisions in Russia during World War I that led to the 1917 Bolshevik revolution and civil war.
What Is Russia’s Wagner Group and Why Is It Accused of Mutiny?
Putin discussed the situation by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who expressed “complete support” for the Russian authorities, the Kremlin said in a statement.
The Russian leader also held phone talks with his ally, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, the state-run Belta news service reported. Putin spoke by phone, too, with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the Kazakh leader’s press service said.
Long-Brewing Feud
Prigozhin, 62, has for months attacked Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and top army officials in Moscow, alleging they failed to adequately support Wagner forces fighting in Ukraine, particularly during battles for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
He has also repeatedly called for the authorities to introduce tougher measures including full mobilization and martial law to prosecute the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia risked defeat without them.
Russian Wagner Chief Blasts Outcome of Putin’s Ukraine War Goals
Putin had long appeared to tolerate the mercenary’s outbursts, relying on his troops to fight in key parts of the front. But his high profile rankled the military brass, which regularly sought to undermine and sideline him.
Tensions erupted Friday when Prigozhin posted a series of audio messages on his Telegram channel vowing to “punish” Russia’s military leaders for what he alleged was a missile attack on a Wagner base and the losses of “tens of thousands” of Russian troops in the war.
He accused Shoigu of overseeing an operation to “destroy” Wagner. The Defense Ministry denied Prigozhin’s claims about a strike.
Frictions had been rising again in recent weeks after Shoigu set a July 1 deadline for all volunteer units to sign a formal contract with the Defense Ministry — an order Prigozhin bluntly rejected. Putin backed the ministry’s demand during a meeting with Russian journalists and military bloggers last week.
