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Shortly before hard-right Republicans made history by ousting Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Ukraine’s western allies, including the UK, the European Union and Nato, received a phone call from President Joe Biden. Congress may be frozen but support for Ukraine is “ongoing”, Mr Biden told those on the line. It was intended as a message of reassurance but, devoid of any detail, it spoke to an impending issue largely outside of the president’s control. Hardline Republicans in the US, the powerhoue of the West, are threatening to demonstratively derail US aid to Ukraine for the first time since last February. Mr McCarthy was removed as head of the lower chamber of the United States Congress, on Tuesday evening following a dispute over how best to allocate government funds for the next fiscal year. The campaign was spearheaded by a group of eight Republicans – a number of them supporters of Donald Trump – angry the domestic issue of securing the border was not being prioritised over supporting Ukraine. The move has plunged the House into chaos and frozen its ability to allocate money completely, including to Ukraine. Until a new speaker is elected and a new financing agreement is approved for next year – a temporary funding bill takes them to 17 November – those reliant on these funds are living on borrowed time. The US is currently operating a policy of taking equipment from its military stocks and sending them straight to Ukraine under the agreed “President Drawdown Authority”. This circumvents the need to buy new equipment from defence companies, which would inevitably delay military aid to a nation that needs it immediately. Congress last year raised the ceiling on the amount the president can take from these military stockpiles from $100 million (£82.4 million) to $14.5 billion (£11.9 billion) to ensure continued support for Ukraine. The Pentagon subsequently sought to get the most out of its funds. But when the fiscal year ended on 1 October without an agreement in the House over how to finance next year, that drawdown authority went back to $100m. Given the burn rate per month for Ukraine of military aid, including artillery and heavier equipment lost in battle, is about $2.5bn, the lowered ceiling of $100m is “basically nothing”, according to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Asia programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. US aid to Ukraine has nearly three months worth of funds (up to $6 billion) to keep feeding its military needs but after that, without a resolution in the House, the stockpiles will run dry. The ousting of Mr McCarthy has made hopes of a resolution evermore difficult. Without a speaker, no decisions can be made. “There is no way to sugarcoat how bad it would be if US security assistance [to Ukraine] stops,” Mr Bergmann said. “A lot of Ukrainians will die and their ability to fight on will be severely compromised.” Russian strikes on critical infrastructure across Ukraine has already begun ramping up, making Kyiv’s need for more air defence systems to protect its civilians more acute. If US funding slows or stops this task beomes far more difficult. Along the frontline, a winter Ukrainian offensive, or the continuation of the current summer counteroffensive, will become exponentially harder the more foreign military aid dwindles. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have become used to attritional warfare, which involves bombing enemy positions before advancing in small groups, retaking small chunks of territory in the process. This requires a continual supply of artillery and shells. Without this, not only are advances more difficult but the threat of a Russian counterattack is heightened. There is also the geopolitical implication of reduced support: it would prove correct the Russian belief that their deep military and personnel resources can outlast Western resolve. “Such a lapse in support will make [Russian President Vladimir] Putin believe that he can wait us out,” US national security council spokesman, John Kirby, said on Tuesday, describing this issue as “just as critical” as the impact on the frontline. European aid will go some way to slowing a potential dilution of US support but they have their own long-term problems regarding arming Ukraine. “The continent collectively has underinvested in defence,” Mr Bergmann said. “There is not as much in the warehouses; there is less ammunition and less mortar rounds.” The House of Representatives, ruled by a razor-thin Republican majority, will now have to vote for a new speaker. Representative Steve Scalise, the number two House Republican, has long been favoured to take over as speaker and enjoys wide support from across his party, but he is currently undergoing chemotherapy for blood cancer. The House, then, must elect a new speaker from a pool of options that are either in the middle of treatment or will struggle to earn enough support to secure any form of sustainable leadership in the House. While they debate and jostle, Ukraine will get closer to losing its most significant military supporter. Read More Kevin McCarthy ousted as US House speaker by Trump supporters – everything you need to know White House says ‘time not our friend’ on Ukraine funding as all eyes on next House speaker Ukraine-Russia war – live: Kyiv launches 31 drones on Putin’s territory as offensive gains momentum

Five French soldiers have been charged with failing to assist 27 people who drowned trying to cross the Channel in the worst small boats disaster on record. A judicial source said nine people in total had been placed in custody over the tragedy and five were formally charged. The AFP news agency reported that those charged included three women and two men on duty at the Channel rescue centre at the time. The disaster sparked a row between the UK and France as each side tried to blame the other for failing to rescue the deceased. It took the UK and French coastguards 12 hours to respond following the first Mayday call. Call records released to lawyers by the French authorities as part of an investigation into the disaster found that the first distress call to the French coastguard was logged shortly before 2.15am on 21 November 2021. The boat overturned at around 3.15am. Shortly afterward, at 3.30am, a passenger reported that some of the group, mostly Iraqui kurds, were in the water. The French authorities replied: “Yes, but you are in English waters, Sir.” Those on board made more than 20 distress calls between 3.40am and 7.30am at sunrise. At around 2.00pm the rescue services arrived at the scene and all but two of the group had drowned or died of exposure. Throughout the course of the night the UK coastguard, responsible for logging emergency calls and coordinating search and rescue missions in the Channel, continued to deny that the dinghy was in British waters, repeatedly telling the passengers to call the French coastguard. The records from France suggest that the boat entered British waters at 2.30am. The charges were welcomed by a spokesperson for Utopia 56, an organisation representing the migrants. "We can only be delighted that things are progressing from a criminal point of view," said Flore Judet. According to AFP those in custody were from the French rescue service Cross Gris Nez, in charge of rescues in the Channel. Cross Gris Nez declined to comment. The Paris court in charge of the investigation was not immediately available for comment. Read More Migration by numbers: What’s really driving the surge in people coming to the UK? Immigration is a great British success story – politicians should tell the truth about it Scarred by war, Ukrainian children carry on after losing parents, homes and innocence Asylum backlog at record high as charities brand human cost of delays staggering Labour leads Tories in poll on immigration as figures set to show migration rise Starmer would stop lower wages for overseas workers used to fill UK jobs

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A federal judge's move to limit how some US agencies communicate with social media companies could have a "chilling effect" on how the federal government and states address election-related disinformation just as the 2024 election cycle get underway, according to interviews with current and former US officials.