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Why are Wagner mercenaries in Belarus – and would they try to invade Poland?
Why are Wagner mercenaries in Belarus – and would they try to invade Poland?
Thousands of Wagner mercenaries have arrived in Belarus since the group’s failed mutiny against Moscow led by its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin – leading to Nato member Poland reinforcing its eastern border against the “potential threat” they pose. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko welcomed Wagner forces into the country after brokering a deal between the Kremlin and Mr Prigozhin, which stopped the mercenaries’ march on Moscow about 125 miles from the capital. He and Russian president Vladimir Putin have spoken about the mercenaries on a number of occasions, including during two days of talks over the weekend and into Monday, the Kremlin said on Tuesday. The Wagner chief called the mutiny a “march of justice” to oust the top military leaders. The mercenaries faced little resistance and downed at least six military helicopters and a command-post aircraft, killing a number of Russian troops. The revolt posed the most serious threat to President Putin during his 23-year rule, eroding his authority and exposing the cracks in the military, and changing the direction of the Kremlin’s 16-month invasion of Ukraine. Here’s a look at where we are now: How many Wagner fighters are in Belarus, and where are they? Between 3,450 and 3,650 soldiers have travelled to a camp close to Asipovichy, a town about 140 miles (230km) north of the Ukrainian border, according to Belaruski Hajun, an activist group that tracks troop movements within the country. Satellite images show that about 700 vehicles, along with construction equipment, have also arrived in Wagner convoys to Belarus, Belaruski Hajun said. Mr Prigozhin also registered a “real estate management company” in Belarus last week under the name Concord Management and Consulting in Belarus. Documents analysed by independent Belarusian media outlets showed that the company’s registered address was in the same village as the Wagner mercenary camp. Why is Poland so concerned? The bigger issue for Poland is that the Belarusian Defence Ministry has made clear over the last week or so that the mercenaries are providing training for Belarusian soldiers, including at training grounds close to the Polish border. “Wagner fighters who have really been in the heat of combat are passing on valuable information and experience to our servicemen,” the Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement. One of the ranges is in Brest, about three miles (5km) from Poland’s eastern border. Warsaw said it was ready for “various scenarios as the situation develops”, having started moving around 1,000 of its own troops towards the border earlier this month. According to claims made in a post by a senior Wagner commander, known by his nom de guerre “Marx”, which was republished by Wagner’s Telegram channel, up to 10,000 fighters “have gone, or will go” to Belarus – although the accuracy of that statement is difficult to verify. Poland’s Defence Ministry said the country’s borders were secure. In response to Warsaw reinforcing its border, the Kremlin tried to paint it as an “aggressive” move – despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine being the ultimate genesis of it. The Belarusian interior minister, Ivan Kubrakov, met Wagner commanders at a training centre to draw up a “clear plan of action”, a statement said. “In view of the difficult situation near the republic’s borders, it is especially important to be ready to respond to potential challenges and threats,” Mr Kubrakov said. He was quoted as hailing the mercenaries’ “practical experience” following their months-long experience of combat in eastern Ukraine, notably in bloody battles such as those that have taken place around the eastern city of Bakhmut. Would Wagner troops try to invade Poland? It would be foolish. With Poland being a Nato member, crossing the border could bring Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty into play. It states that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all members. Given Mr Putin’s talk about military action against Belarus being on a par with attacking Russia, Wagner forces heading into Poland is the last thing either Mr Putin or Nato needs. However, that has not stopped the Belarusian leader, Mr Lukashenko, from stirring the pot. In a meeting with the Russian president on Sunday, Mr Lukashenko said that Wagner troops were “stressing [him] out” by calling for “an excursion” into Poland. He said that his government in Minsk was “controlling” the situation by keeping the group in the centre of the country. “They are asking to go west ... to go on a trip to Warsaw ...” Mr Lukashenko told Mr Putin. “But of course, I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed.” It suits both Mr Putin and Mr Lukashenko to have Europe worry about its borders. It allows both men to keep talking tough on the international stage – and play to voters at home. The remarks have largely been dismissed by experts, with the American Institute for the Study of War – which monitors the fighting in Ukraine – saying that Wagner troops there could not threaten Ukraine and Poland. “There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament,” the think tank said in a statement. The deputy head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Vadym Skibitsky, also said that there was no “direct threat” from Russian mercenaries in Belarus, but that Kyiv would be keeping a close eye on the Wagner fighters. “Our assessment is very simple: today there is no direct threat [from Belarus], but we are ready. We are monitoring everything related to the so-called Wagner missile defence system,” he told journalists, according to the directorate’s Telegram channel. Read More The Body in the Woods | An Independent TV Original Documentary The harrowing discovery at centre of The Independent’s new documentary Extremist attacks wounded Paris. Here's why the city turned to the 2024 Olympics to heal Mali's army and suspected Russia-linked mercenaries committed 'new atrocities,' rights group says Monitoring group says thousands of Wagner mercenaries have arrived in Belarus since failed uprising
2023-07-25 22:29
More Pac-12 movement? Arizona and Washington regents call special meetings
More Pac-12 movement? Arizona and Washington regents call special meetings
More movement could be coming to the Pac-12 Conference
2023-08-04 03:53
Elon Musk kicks off China visit, Tesla expansion in focus
Elon Musk kicks off China visit, Tesla expansion in focus
BEIJING (Reuters) -Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk on Tuesday kicked off a high-stakes visit to China with a meeting with
2023-05-30 22:52
North Korean leader to visit Russia's Pacific fleet as he continues trip focused on arms cooperation
North Korean leader to visit Russia's Pacific fleet as he continues trip focused on arms cooperation
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is going to Russia’s far eastern port city of Vladivostok to see that country’s Pacific fleet
2023-09-16 08:54
Rain forecast on Canada's Atlantic Coast promises relief after week of wildfires
Rain forecast on Canada's Atlantic Coast promises relief after week of wildfires
Rain and a rainy forecast for the weekend have fire officials hopeful they can get the largest wildfire ever recorded in Canada’s Atlantic Coast province of Nova Scotia under control
2023-06-02 22:23
Explainer-Charting the Fed's policy path
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By Howard Schneider (Reuters) -U.S. central bankers have signaled they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26
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Biden, Mexico president to discuss fentanyl, migrants
Biden, Mexico president to discuss fentanyl, migrants
US President Joe Biden and his Mexican counterpart Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will meet Friday in San Francisco to discuss the fentanyl and migration crises...
2023-11-17 15:24
China Begins Nationwide Push to Reveal Hidden Government Debt
China Begins Nationwide Push to Reveal Hidden Government Debt
China has begun a fresh round of nationwide inspections to work out how much money local governments’ owe,
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Milwaukee school bus goes up in flames seconds after driver safely evacuates all 37 students
Milwaukee school bus goes up in flames seconds after driver safely evacuates all 37 students
School bus driver Imunek Williams was just two blocks away from dropping a group of students off at the Milwaukee Academy of Science on Wednesday morning when she suddenly smelled something burning. Minutes later, the bus was engulfed in flames.
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Woody Allen says supports #MeToo as 50th film shows at Venice
Woody Allen says supports #MeToo as 50th film shows at Venice
After a critical mauling for Roman Polanski, there was a warmer reception at the Venice Film Festival on Monday for another blacklisted director -- Woody Allen -- who insisted he...
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Supreme Court rules Alabama discriminated against Black voters in major victory for voting rights
Supreme Court rules Alabama discriminated against Black voters in major victory for voting rights
In a victory for voting rights and Alabama voters, the US Supreme Court has ruled that the state likely violated the Voting Rights Act with a congressional redistricting plan that diluted the voting power of Black voters. The state likely discriminated against Black voters with a newly drafted map that packs most of the state’s Black residents into a single district, out of seven, despite Black residents making up 27 per cent of the state’s population. A key ruling in the case of Allen v Milligan means that the state will have to re-draw its congressional map to include a second majority-Black district. The surprise 5-4 decision on the conservative-majority panel was written by Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by liberal Justices Elena Kagan, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Sonia Sotomayor, with partial but crucial concurrence from conservative Brett Kavanaugh. In January, a lower court determined that the map significantly dilutes Black residents’ political power and ordered the state to draw new political boundaries that would create at least two districts in which Black voters would be more likely to elect a representative that more closely resembles the state’s demographics. The Voting Rights Act was drafted to prevent that kind of race-based dilution of Black voters. But attorneys for the state argued the opposite – that considering race to redraw political boundaries would mark an unconstitutional consideration of “racial targets” and “race-based sorting”, in violation of the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause. A decision that sided with Alabama attorneys would have radically reduced Black voters’ political power and landed a critical blow to a state with a long history of racist violence and discrimination. Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act prohibits voting laws and election policies from discriminating on the basis of race. The state’s suggestion that “race should play no role whatsoever” to determine whether redistricting plans violate Section 2 would “rewrite” the law and “overturn decades of settled precedent,” according to the map’s challengers. Attorneys for President Joe Biden’s administration argue that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act should be considered when “pervasive racial politics would otherwise deny minority voters equal electoral opportunities.” The map’s challengers argued that is precisely what is at stake in Alabama. This is a developing story Read More Main suspect in 2005 disappearance of Natalee Holloway due to be extradited to US Alabama senator says Space Command prefers Huntsville for HQ, but command has no comment Missouri governor signs ban on transgender health care, school sports
2023-06-08 22:57
Who is Guillermo Gama III? Train collides with SUV in Florida, killing 6 and leaving sole survivor in critical condition
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A train collision with an Escalade SUV at a private railroad crossing, located 20 miles west of Tampa, Florida, resulted in multiple fatalities
2023-09-25 18:17