Turkey recorded a surplus in its current account for only the second time since late 2021, as a narrowing trade shortfall helps steady the country’s external finances.
The broadest measure of trade and investment flows with the outside world had a surplus $1.9 billion in September, higher than every forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, whose median was $1.4 billion. The shortfall for August was revised down to $357 million, according to data published by the central bank on Monday.
The improvement shows how a sharp tightening of monetary policy is driving down demand for foreign goods by pushing borrowing costs higher and limiting credit growth at home. The government still projects the current-account deficit at 4% of gross domestic product this year before it narrows to 3.1% in 2024.
Restoring confidence in the Turkish lira is also a must for reducing gold purchases that have long been a drag on the current account, according to QNB Finansbank, which estimated last month that bullion stashed “under the mattress” by households rose by $38 billion over the past year.
The slowdown in gold imports has been helped by rising lira deposit rates throughout September, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Net non-monetary imports of the precious metal slipped from about $3 billion in August to $1.4 billion the following month.
The weighted average yield on lira deposits of up to three months peaked at 45% in September, according to central bank data, up from as low as 24% earlier in the year.
--With assistance from Joel Rinneby.
