Rishi Sunak’s controversial policy to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda was ruled unlawful by the nation’s highest court ruled, dashing the UK prime minister’s central plan to stem cross-channel arrivals in small boats.
The Supreme Court decision on Wednesday is a major embarrassment for the Conservative government and extinguishes any immediate chance that Sunak can make good on the central plank of his tough immigration reform.
Judge Robert Reed, the president of the Supreme Court, ruled that there was a real risk that asylum seekers processed by the Rwandan state may be sent back to their home countries.
It’s a moment of political danger for Sunak, who started the year asking voters to judge him by five key promises, including a call to “stop the boats” full of asylum seekers traveling to the UK from France. The verdict is likely to embolden the right wing of his Conservative Party who are increasingly restless about slow progress on immigration — foremost among them Suella Braverman, who he fired as home secretary on Monday.
“This judgment leaves the government’s plan in tatters,” Satvinder Juss, Professor of Human Rights Law at King’s College London said. “It’s a resounding victory for all those who argued it was unworkable.”
The proposal, which involves plans to fly asylum seekers arriving in Britain some 4,000 miles (6,400 kilometers) to the African nation, spurred a series of legal challenges. Refugees and charities challenging the plans said it didn’t align with human-rights conventions and that Rwanda wasn’t a safe place to send asylum seekers.
“The court of appeal was entitled to conclude that there were substantial grounds for believing that asylum seekers would be at real risk,” of ill treatment, the five-judge panel ruled unanimously.
Sunak said in a statement that he would consider “next steps.”
“This was not the outcome we wanted, but we have spent the last few months planning for all eventualities and we remain completely committed to stopping the boats,” he said, noting that “the principle of sending illegal migrants to a safe third country for processing is lawful.”
That response raises the question the government may look into sending asylum seekers to other countries instead. People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg this week that ministers are looking to send migrants to different nations like Turkey, Egypt or Iraq.
Rwandan government spokeswoman Yolande Makolo said in a statement that while Rwandan ministers “take issue with the ruling that Rwanda is not a safe third country for asylum seekers and refugees, in terms of refoulement,” the decision is ultimately one for the UK’s judicial system.
“Rwanda is committed to its international obligations, and we have been recognized by the UNHCR and other international institutions for our exemplary treatment of refugees,” Makolo said.
Just days after a reshuffle of his senior cabinet ministers that saw Sunak fire Braverman and ex-premier David Cameron make a shock return to politics, the ruling undermines the premier as he was pushing to reassert his authority before a general election expected next year. The verdict came three hours after official data showed he could claim victory in another of his five promises — to halve inflation this year.
But progress on his pledge to stop the boats is proving slower. Home Office and Border Force data show that some 26,699 immigrants crossed the channel in small boats in the first ten months of the year.
While that’s almost exactly a third down from the almost 40,000 who had done so by the same stage last year, it’s still the second highest level on record. Moreover, The asylum caseload in the UK rose to 215,500 as of June, according to government data. Sunak, nevertheless, argues that it proves the Rwanda policy is serving as a deterrent, even without flights taking off.
The verdict is also likely to energize the Tory right. Braverman was one of the most vocal supporters of the Rwanda plan and in an excoriating resignation letter on Tuesday, she accused Sunak of being “weak” and “manifestly and repeatedly failed to deliver” on his commitments to her, including on migration. She also slammed him for failing to prepare a “Plan B” in the event of losing Wednesday’s case.
Braverman is leading a push among MPs on the right of the Conservative Party for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. The UK court case is a separate issue, but is linked because the Strasbourg court which oversees the ECHR has previously blocked the government’s Rwanda deportation flights. In her letter, Braverman accused Sunak of betraying an agreement she said they made, which included either leaving or blocking the ECHR from interfering in the policy.
Sunak now faces the monumental task of trying to present a compromise that appeases the warring factions in his party. While pledging to leave the ECHR will stem the risk of rebellion from the right, it wouldn’t be supported by more moderate Tory MPs, because it’s woven into the UK’s 1998 Human Rights Act and the peace deal for Northern Ireland known as the Good Friday Agreement.
A compromise may include negotiating carve-outs from the ECHR with signatory countries, thrashing out a new deal with Rwanda to be ratified by MPs, or opting to send migrants to different nations.
Judge Reed in the ruling cautioned that the ECHR is not the only relevant international treaty which prohibits refugees from returning to their country of origin if their life is threatened, also pointing to the United Nations refugee convention which the UK is party to. The implication is that the government cannot clear all legal hurdles preventing its policy from being delivered, just by leaving the ECHR.
Braverman’s replacement as Home Secretary, James Cleverly, has publicly said he believes the UK is better off remaining in the ECHR. Both Sunak are due to speak in the House of Commons on Wednesday afternoon, with Sunak planning a press conference later in the day.
--With assistance from Jonathan Browning and Paul Richardson.
(Updates with UK, Rwanda reactions, context, starting in eight paragraph.)
Author: Katharine Gemmell, Upmanyu Trivedi and Ellen Milligan
