South Korea’s early trade data pointed to the first increase in exports since August last year, a possible early sign of a global demand pickup.
Exports advanced 5.3% in the first 20 days of June from a year ago, after dropping for nine straight months, the customs office reported Wednesday. Gains were led largely by shipments to the US, steady demand for automobiles and a jump in ships demand. Exports to the EU and Hong Kong also advanced on a year-on-year basis.
While the early data offer nascent signs of recovery in demand, shipments to China remain down. The daily average for exports, which removes potential distortions from changes in the number of working days, declined 2%, highlighting that weakness remains.
“The data indicates global trade may have bottomed out, but whether it is set for a full-on recovery will be something to be watched,” said Moon Junghiu, economist at KB Kookmin Bank in Seoul.
The data point to healthy demand in the US, despite ongoing interest rate hikes and tightened lending conditions following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. A full recovery in global trade depends largely on China — a major engine of the world economy — and a resurgence in appetite for chips, which go into everything from cars to electronic devices.
The exports advance in the first 20 days of June was led by automobiles, which rose 110.1%. Ships demand also more than doubled. While semiconductor exports fell 23.5% in the early trade data, the drop eased compared to May’s full month figures.
Overall imports declined 11.2%, resulting in a trade deficit of $1.61 billion.
South Korea’s exports range from cars to ships to smartphones, serving as a early barometer on the state of the world economy.
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