Mutinous soldiers in Niger this week overthrew the democratically elected government of President Mohamed Bazoum, adding to a growing list of military regimes in West Africa’s Sahel region and raising fears of regional destabilization. The Sahel, the vast arid expanse south of the Sahara Desert, faces growing violence from Islamic extremists, which in turn has caused people to turn against elected governments. The military takeovers have followed a similar pattern: The coup leaders accuse the government of failing to meet the people’s expectations for delivering dividends of democracy. They say they will usher in a new democratic government to address those shortcomings, but the process gets delayed. Karim Manuel, west and central Africa analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, says the military governments threaten to unwind democratic gains made not just in the Sahel region but in the broader West Africa region. “This increases political instability going forward and makes the situation on the ground much more volatile and unpredictable. Regional stability is undermined as a result of these coups,” Manuel said. The Sahel region comprises Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria. Here are countries in the Sahel with military regimes: MALI: The Sahel’s latest wave of coups kicked off in Mali in August 2020 when the democratically elected President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was overthrown by soldiers led by Col. Assimi Goita. The military was supposed to hand power back to civilian rule within 18 months. However, seven months into the transition process, the military removed the interim president and prime minister they had appointed and swore in Goita as president of the transitional government. Last month, Malian voters cast ballots on a new draft constitution in a referendum that the regime says will pave the way for new elections in 2024. BURKINA FASO: Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in 2022 with soldiers ousting Lt. Col. Paul Henri Sandaogo Damiba about eight months after he helped overthrow the democratically elected President Roch Marc Kaboré early in the year. Capt. Ibrahim Traore was named as the transitional president while a national assembly that included army officers, civil society organizations, and traditional and religious leaders approved a new charter for the West African country. The junta has set a goal to conduct elections to return the country to democratic rule by July 2024. SUDAN: Sudan slipped under military rule in October 2021 when soldiers dissolved the transitional government of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok as well as the Sovereign Council, a power-sharing body of military officers and civilians. That took place weeks before the military was to hand the leadership of the council to civilians and nearly two years after soldiers overthrew the longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir amid deadly protests. Eighteen months after the coup and amid the hopes for a transition to democracy, fighting broke out between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict has resulted in the deaths of hundreds with no end in sight. CHAD Chad has been under military rule since April 2021 when President Idriss Deby, who ruled Chad for more than 30 years, was killed while battling against rebels in the hard-hit northern region. His son, Gen. Mahamat Idriss Deby, took power contrary to constitutional provisions and was named the interim head of state with an 18-month transitional process set in place for the country’s return to democracy. By the end of the 18 months period, the government extended Deby’s by two more years, triggering protests that the military suppressed. Read More Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide No clarity about who's in charge in Niger, 2 days after mutinous soldiers ousted the president How the attempted coup in Niger could expand the reach of extremism, and Wagner, in West Africa Mutinous soldiers say they've taken Niger. The government says a coup won't be tolerated

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As an imminent eruption looms thousands of Iceland residents await their fate as their town could be wiped out within days. Thousands of earthquakes rocked the southwestern peninsula of Reykjanes on Saturday 11 November leading semi-molten rock to ravage below the surface as the tremors caused a 15km long dyke to form, cracking the community in two as the ground was pushed upwards. Some 3,400 residents from the town of Grindavik which lies on the path of the expected fissure vent eruption were forced to evacuate, they described the ‘apocalyptic’ scenes of their much-loved home town as they briefly returned to collect their belongings. The whole population waits in limbo as they fear the fate of their close-knit community, many have already lost their homes whilst others do not know if their residencies still stand as earthquakes have continued to strike. The displaced population have moved across the country as fellow Icelanders have offered their spare rooms and summer homes. Since, volcanologists have noted a change in the stage of the eruption, making it more likely to come over the next few days. Tamsin Mather, a professor of Earth Sciences from the University of Oxford told The Independent the most troubling challenge to overcome is the uncertainty of when the eruption will come. She said: “It’s being very well managed in my opinion but it could accelerate very quickly as the heightened state of activity continues.” When is it expected to erupt? The Iceland Civil Defence noted “very clear signs of magma along the dyke” less than 1km below the surface, report RUV. Víðir Reynisson, director of Civil Defence told the state broadcaster: “The likely time of something happening along the dyke, especially in the centre, if it happens, is within days not weeks. “If this continues without an eruption the chance of one decreases with time pretty rapidly. But then we see the changes at Svartsengi which introduce possibly the next stage of this.” The area near the Svartsengi power plant, about four km north of Grindavík, has entered a “new eruption phase”, an Icelandic volcanologist has suggested. The land near the power plant is swelling as a chamber some 4.5 kilometres below the surface fills with magma at a rate of around 50 cubic metres per second, according to Professor Thorvaldur Thordarson. “The land is rising much faster now. This happens simultaneously because the magma is creating space and thus raising the surface of the earth,” Professor Thordarson told Iceland Monitor. It is still unclear when the eruption will take place as Grindavik evacuees remain on tenterhooks. Professor Mather added the eruption could happen suddenly but the Icelandic Met Office are knowledegable, well-resourced and working through the night to alleviate any danger. How dangerous would an eruption be? In the worst-case scenario, an eruption could obliterate the entire town, wiping out schools, workplaces and cherished family homes. However, two walls are being built around the Svartsengi geothermal plant to divert the potential lava flow away from the plant which provides hot water used for heating for 30,000 people, says RUV. Professor Mathers said: “The lava could have an impact on the power station, the town and infrastructure. I really hope there are no fatalities or injuries as they have done everything to avoid that.” Problems could arise if the lava flows towards the power station and the town’s infrastructure, she added. The civil defence said in a conference earlier today that the risk of an eruption remains high but they cannot quantify the exact risks, say RUV. Iceland is highly susceptible to natural disasters because it lies on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge – a divergent plate boundary where the North American Plate and the Eurasian Plate are moving away from each other. The country has an eruption every four to five years. The most disruptive in recent times was the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which spewed huge clouds of ash into the atmosphere and grounded flights across Europe for days because of fears ash could damage aeroplane engines. Professor Mathers, an expert in Iceland volcanology explained there are multiple factors that could affect the impact of an eruption. She said: “Speculation isn’t terribly helpful but once the eruption starts, they will be able to think about the contours and the direction of the lava flow.” It is hard to predict the flow path until the eruption starts, she added. The best case scenario would be for the eruption to take place in the base of a valley, so the lava flows and does not travel far, said Professor Mather. The worst case would be for the eruption to occur on high ground so the lava can flow down over a vast area. Multiple factors could impact how destructive the explosion is, including the wind direction which influences where pyroclastic material and ash will blow. Sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulphide will also come up in an eruption which can affect air quality across a widespread area, added Professor Mather. Scientists say an eruption would likely produce lava but not an ash cloud. What would happen to residents? Civil protection authorities told Associated Press that even if there is not an eruption soon, it’s likely to be months before it is safe for residents evacuated from the danger zone to go home. In a worst-case scenario, if the eruption does happen close to the town of Grindavík it could devastate the entire town, as earthquakes have already destroyed homes. The Icelandic Civil Defence told their state broadcaster the possibility of residents returning home to clear their homes, many have already been able to collect necessities and pets. Jóhanna Lilja Birgisdóttir, a senior psychologist at Grindavík’s social services department revealed the town’s plan for displaced schoolchildren to RUV. She said in a conference this morning there are two possible solutions: for the children to attend school where their family is staying or for school children to group together and attend schools in different parts of Reykjavík from next Wednesday. Currently, Grindavik residents can apply for short-term accommodation through a government portal, where they can stay until mid-January. What would an emergency response be? An emergency response is already underway as magma intrusion measurements predict an eruption could arrive in days. Once an episode starts, the area will be monitored for decades to come and emergency teams and experts will respond to risks as and when they come as once an eruption begins, they are better placed to track the likely disruption, explained Professor Mathers. As it stands, Grindavik residents will not be able to return home as the magma intrusion is carefully monitored along the 15km dyke Read More Iceland volcano update: Eruption could happen with just 30 minutes warning Iceland residents describe ‘apocalyptic’ scenes as they flee volcano threat Iceland volcano could erupt like a ‘can of fizzy drink’ Iceland officials reveal where volcano will likely erupt Biggest volcanic eruptions in the last 10 years as Iceland town faces devastation Is it safe to travel to Iceland? Your rights if you have a holiday booked