The former number two official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has offered a dire prediction about America’s future should Donald Trump or another like-minded Republican succeed in winning next year’s presidential election, according to a new book by a former Trump administration homeland security aide. In Blowback, author Miles Taylor recounts an October 2020 conversation he had with Sue Gordon, a 25-year US intelligence community veteran who served as the Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence from 2017 to 2019, shortly after news broke that the FBI had disrupted a plot by Michigan-based right-wing extremists to kidnap Wolverine State governor Gretchen Whitmer. According to a copy of the book obtained by The Independent ahead of its Tuesday release, Taylor recalls how the news of the kidnapping plot prompted him to telephone Ms Gordon, who he says spent “decades” at the CIA monitoring foreign governments for signs of instability, and ask the former deputy DNI how America’s “democratic stability” would be impacted by a second term in the White House for Mr Trump or a “Maga successor”. Taylor said Ms Gordon’s reply came “in the language of a seasoned intelligence analyst” who speaks “based on data from sources in the field and the uncertainty level of information they don’t have”. He added that she told him how she would “assess with ‘low confidence’ that the United States reaches its three hundredth birthday” — the projected 2076 tricentennial anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence from Great Britain — in “any recognisable form”. “People don’t trust government institutions anymore or each other, and when the world gets tumultuous, they’re more open to authoritarianism,” she said. Continuing, Taylor writes that Ms Gordon told him her reason for pessimism about the long-term viability of the US as a functioning democracy stems from the follow-on effects of four more years of Donald Trump — or someone acting with the same malevolence towards governmental institutions — atop the US executive branch. He said she told him that she does not believe a “Next Trump” would successfully smash through “every democratic guardrail,” but would “stoke unprecedented division and set off a slow turn towards despotism” in the US by “attempting” to further erode democratic norms and bring nominally independent institutions under his or her thumb. “That process can take decades to unfold. If history is any guide, though, it might come suddenly to a head, with the literal pull of a trigger — and the odds of that happening in the not-too-distant future are historically high,” he wrote. Taylor, who was chief of staff at the Trump-era Department of Homeland Security for the first three years of Mr Trump’s administration but is better known as the formerly anonymous author of a New York Times op-ed about “resistance” to the then-president inside his own government, told The Independent in a phone interview that he fears a repeat of the January 6 attack on the Capitol — but worse — should Mr Trump lose next year’s presidential election. Echoing Ms Gordon’s prediction of a long-term breakdown of the American democratic system, Taylor said the possibility of “low-level civil conflict” touched off by Mr Trump or another Republican is “higher now than it even was in that post election period in 2020”. “The muscle memory for those extremist movements has now been solidified. The networks are closer. And ... since that time, many more people, otherwise kind of normal people in small town America, have really taken the stolen election lies, QAnon, and great replacement theory as gospel, and the polling shows that a majority of your everyday Republicans believe those lies,” he said. “Add to that the fact that the country is more armed now than at any point in its history ... it is a powder keg.” Taylor added that his fears of violence go beyond a repeat of what happened in Washington nearly three years ago, pointing to the aborted plot against Ms Whitmer, the Michigan governor, as an example of what could be in store for the future. He told The Independent that he feels “the conditions are very ripe” in the US for “that sort of low-level conflict” in many parts of the country. “This is not just a Washington, DC thing — I really think we could see something a good deal worse, and part of that could also happen if a Trump or a savvier successor is reelected. And that misuse of the justice system could foment that even more,” he said. Read More Man arrested near Obama home threatened other prominent lawmakers, officials say Three men jailed for at least seven years over plot to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer DoJ dragged feet over including Trump in Jan 6 probe over fears of appearing biased, report says Oath Keepers leader issues warning to Trump amid ex-president’s legal woes White House blasts Marjorie Taylor Greene’s criticism of efforts to aid US families GOP presidential hopeful lists conservative pool of Supreme Court picks Trump finally reveals how he thinks he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine in a day

Imagination trumps obedience when it comes to what the public thinks are important qualities in children, according to new research. But while British attitudes have changed in the past three decades, children being taught good manners at home is still highly rated among the majority of people, the wide-ranging survey found. Some 85% of people in 2022 saw good manners as especially important for children, down only slightly on the 89% who said so in 1990, research by the Policy Institute at King’s College London (KCL) showed. Good manners are still the quality we want to see most, there has been an increasing emphasis on the importance of hard work, and we’re also among the very most likely to value unselfishness Professor Bobby Duffy Obedience is now far less valued, the analysis of the long-running World Values Survey (WVS) found, with just 11% of those asked last year citing it as being an especially important quality for children to be taught, down from a peak of 50% who felt that way in 1998. More people now think qualities including independence and hard work are important things for a child to be taught, with the former up to 53% last year from 43% in 1990, and the latter having risen from 29% to 48%. Around four in 10 (41%) people said determination and perseverance were important, up from 31% three decades earlier, while more than a third (37%) felt imagination was important, up from less than a fifth (18%) in 1990. Tolerance and respect for others are still among the qualities seen as very important, coming just behind good manners at the top of the list, but it is now seen as less important that a child is taught to be unselfish, the research found. More than half (56%) of people thought it was especially important for a child to be taught not to be selfish back in 1990, but that fell to 43% last year. Of the 24 countries surveyed, the UK is among the most likely to value unselfishness in children and among the least likely to value responsibility and obedience, researchers said. More people in Japan, Norway, Sweden and South Korea felt imagination was very important for children to have, while only five countries (Egypt, Philippines, Morocco, Nigeria and Mexico) were above the UK in valuing good manners in children. Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at KCL, said: “The qualities we’d like to see instilled in our children are important signals of what we value as a society – and the very clear message from these long-term trends is the increased importance of imagination and decline in how much we prize straightforward obedience. “But this doesn’t mean we want a society of self-centred children – good manners are still the quality we want to see most, there has been an increasing emphasis on the importance of hard work, and we’re also among the very most likely to value unselfishness. “Instead, this is likely to reflect a more general shift towards valuing self-expression, while still wanting our children to be positive and productive contributors to society.” The 2022 data comes from a sample of 3,056 adults across the UK interviewed by Ipsos through a mix on face-to-face and online survey methods, but for the analysis of trends over time, data is nationally representative for Great Britain only due to a lack of available trend data from Northern Ireland, and is based on surveys of 1,000 or more adults. Read More Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live 7 ways you could be damaging your eye health without even realising Celebrities mingle with royals at glam Vogue World party in London Sienna Miller bares baby bump at celebrity and royal-studded Vogue event

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