Ever look down at your phone and see the weather forecasting “30 percent chance of rain”? Well, it turns out that for many people, those percentages don’t quite mean what they thought they did. You might assume a 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30 percent chance that it will rain in your area. But what it actually means is a combination of a) how high the chance of rain is over any given area, and b) how much of the area it is expected to cover. “The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast,” the US National Weather Service explains. “To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01 inch [0.025 centimeters] or more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.” It comes after an account on X/Twitter, posted a viral picture of somebody saying: “Am I the only one who thought 30% chance of rain meant it’s a 30% chance it’s gonna rain?” What actually happens is as follows. To calculate the precipitation probability, forecasters multiply how much of an area they believe will receive this much rain, by how confident they are in their prediction that rain will fall in that area. The NWS gives the following examples, which both lead to a prediction of a 40 percent chance of rain via very different weather scenarios: “(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read ‘a 40% chance of rain’ for any given location. “(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a ‘40% chance of rain’ at any given location in the forecast area.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

A group of former U.S. diplomats and representatives of resettlement organizations has asked Pakistan not to deport thousands of Afghans who have been waiting for U.S. visas under an American program that relocates at-risk Afghan refugees fleeing Taliban rule

New Hampshire has scheduled its presidential primaries for Jan. 23, 2024, keeping the state first despite national Democrats’ efforts to overhaul the nominating calendar

Investors in sovereign bonds are mispricing a growing risk that has the potential to trigger downgrades, according to

A former sheriff’s deputy has been sentenced to at least 35 years in prison for murdering of his married girlfriend after she insulted his penis size. Jason Cunningham, 48, fatally shot 37 -year-old Nicole Harrington in the back of the head in a parking garage elevator in downtown Augusta in June 2020, authorities say. Augusta District Attorney Jared Williams said in a statement that Cunningham had become incensed after Harrington insulted “the size of his manhood”. Cunningham was then involved in an eight-hour stand-off with Columbia County deputies at a boat ramp at Clarks Hill Lake before being taken into custody. On Monday, Cunningham was sentenced to 30 years after pleading guilty to murder, and a further five years for possession of a firearm during the commission of a felony. According to an affidavit obtained by WRDW, Cunningham claimed he had gone to meet Harrington to end their affair. He told investigators the pair started to argue, and he shot her in the head as she entered an elevator. “This was an extramarital affair in which the defendant was living a double life,” District Attorney Williams said. Cunningham resigned from the Richmond County Sheriff’s Office in 2018 when he tested positive for an illegal substance after he was involved in an accident while on duty, WFXG reported. Harrington, from Florida, was survived by three children. Cunningham also worked as a marketing manager for Forces United, a veterans support organisation in Georgia. Read More Family of Colorado man killed by police during mental health crisis gets $19 million settlement New video from Uvalde massacre shows police officers vomiting and sobbing after discovering victims From Donald Trump to Mike Tyson: The powerful men finally being held to account by sexual assault accusers

By Makini Brice and Andy Sullivan WASHINGTON The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives will hold its first hearing

Amazon.com Inc.’s web services division is offering $20 million in cybersecurity grants to K-12 schools as part of

HSBC Holdings Plc’s head of public affairs criticized the US for strong-arming the UK into cutting back business

Louis Arnaud's family says his conviction on national security charges is an attack on human rights.

California is considering legislation to cool down outside areas at schools

She was arrested as part of an investigation into an incident in the Slieve League area in June.

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sep 5, 2023--