By David Morgan WASHINGTON Kevin McCarthy earned his stripes as Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

Ever look down at your phone and see the weather forecasting “30 percent chance of rain”? Well, it turns out that for many people, those percentages don’t quite mean what they thought they did. You might assume a 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30 percent chance that it will rain in your area. But what it actually means is a combination of a) how high the chance of rain is over any given area, and b) how much of the area it is expected to cover. “The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast,” the US National Weather Service explains. “To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01 inch [0.025 centimeters] or more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.” It comes after an account on X/Twitter, posted a viral picture of somebody saying: “Am I the only one who thought 30% chance of rain meant it’s a 30% chance it’s gonna rain?” What actually happens is as follows. To calculate the precipitation probability, forecasters multiply how much of an area they believe will receive this much rain, by how confident they are in their prediction that rain will fall in that area. The NWS gives the following examples, which both lead to a prediction of a 40 percent chance of rain via very different weather scenarios: “(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read ‘a 40% chance of rain’ for any given location. “(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a ‘40% chance of rain’ at any given location in the forecast area.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

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President Joe Biden is set for talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Thursday, welcoming the far-right leader who has won praise from the U.S. administration for her strong backing of the U.S.-led effort to assist Ukraine as it tries to fend off the Russian invasion. The warm reception comes after initial trepidation in the Biden administration about Meloni, who rose to power last year as the head of Italy’s most far-right government since the end of World War II. Biden administration concerns about her ideology have been eased by her support for Ukraine and her seeming openness to pull back from Italy's participation in China's infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative. Her visit comes as Italy prepares to take up the presidency next year of the Group of Seven industrialized nations. White House officials said that in addition to discussing Ukraine and China, the two leaders were expected to discuss migration from North Africa to Europe's southern shores. More than 1,900 migrants have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean so far this year, bringing the total of dead and missing since 2014 to 27,675, according to the International Organization for Migration. “On issues of foreign policy, there’s been a lot of overlapping and mutually reinforcing approaches that we’re taking on with Italy,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. “Italy is a NATO ally and they are a very competent NATO ally and they’ve been a tremendous supporter of Ukraine.” The Biden administration viewed Meloni's predecessor, economist and former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, as an intellectual force and one of its strongest allies in Europe. Soon after Meloni's victory last September, Biden warned about the rise of hard-right populism in Europe and in the United States. “You just saw what’s happened in Italy in that election,” Biden said in an address to the Democratic Governors Association after Meloni’s victory last September. “You’re seeing what’s happening around the world. And the reason I bother to say that is we can’t be sanguine about what’s happening here either.” Meloni became Italy’s first far-right leader to hold the premiership in Italy’s post-World War II republic after the Brothers of Italy party she co-founded more than a decade ago emerged as the largest vote-getter in the September 2022 elections. Her Brothers of Italy party, named after the first words of Italy’s national anthem, has roots in a party founded by nostalgists for fascism following the demise of dictator Benito Mussolini’s regime. But Meloni brushes off any insinuation that she is nostalgic for Mussolini, writing in her autobiography, “I don’t hold the cult of fascism.” Since coming to power, Meloni has faced criticism for her government's direction that city halls stop automatically registering both parents in same-sex couples but instead limit recognition of parental rights only to the biological parent of the child. When Meloni ran for the premiership, she called for a naval blockade of northern Africa to thwart smugglers’ boats overcrowded with migrants determined to reach Europe’s southern shores. But once in office, she quickly dropped talk of any blockade. On the eve of Meloni's visit, the White House sought to stress the U.S. and Italy's close cooperation on Ukraine. Kirby noted that Meloni has been one of the European Union’s most vocal supporters of Ukraine's sovereignty, and Italy has hosted some 170,000 Ukrainians who have fled the war. Meloni has also been a champion of a stronger NATO and views the trans-Atlantic alliance as the linchpin of traditionally strong U.S.-Italian relations. “From a foreign policy lens, the Biden administration sees this is better than what they could have possibly expected or hoped for,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The prime minister has also expressed skepticism about Italy's ties with China through the Belt and Road Initiative. In 2019, Italy became the first and only G7 nation to join China’s ambitious infrastructure building effort, despite objections from the United States. The project was launched by Beijing in 2013 by President Xi Jinping to link East Asia and Europe through physical infrastructure. The ambition for the project has expanded to Africa, Oceania and Latin America, significantly broadening China’s economic and political influence. Italy must either renew or abandon the accord by early next year. Kirby called Italy's decision on whether to stay in Belt and Road a “sovereign decision” but added that “it's becoming increasingly obvious that more and more countries around the world are seeing the risks, and quite frankly lack of reward for economic partnerships with China.” Meloni is also scheduled to meet with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Thursday at the U.S. Capitol. ___ D'Emilio reported from Rome. Read More Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide One of Libya’s rival prime ministers returns to Tripoli on 1st commercial flight from Italy in years Italy's Meloni opens conference that aims to stanch flows of migrants to Europe with aid to Africa Rights activists fear Tunisia deal will be model for bartering EU money for migrants' lives

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David Drummond is currently being held at Bellevue Hospital in New York City, having been transferred from the custody of the city Department of Correction