President Joe Biden remains the unquestioned leader in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
Biden holds a commanding 78% support among likely Democratic primary voters, with environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson both in the single digits (at 9% and 6%, respectively). Biden's support has grown since a July UNH poll found 70% of likely Democratic primary voters supporting him. And a majority of primary voters, including three-quarters of Biden's supporters, say their minds are definitely made up.
The New Hampshire primary is traditionally the first in the nation. Its date for 2024 has not yet been scheduled, though it is widely expected to be set for January. A January primary in New Hampshire, however, would violate the Democratic National Committee's rules. If that happened, Biden likely wouldn't put his name on the ballot. But even in that case, 69% of Biden supporters say they would write him in anyway.
Few likely Democratic primary voters see plausible alternatives to a Biden-led ticket. Just 9% hold a favorable view of Williamson, with 47% viewing her unfavorably and the rest neutral or unsure; Kennedy gets an identical 9% favorability rating, but with a 73% majority rating him unfavorably. Just 37% say there's someone else besides the current candidates they'd like to see run in the Democratic primary, but there's little agreement as to whom: 7% of all likely Democratic primary voters name Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, with smaller numbers suggesting Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (5%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (4%) or Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (3%).
When asked to name their top concern about Biden as a candidate, 57% of likely Democratic primary voters cite his age, with 4% mentioning his health. Relatively few concerns focused on his character (6%), his policies (4%) or attacks he might face from opponents or the media (4%).
And few see a major disconnect between their own political views and Biden's. A 43% plurality say Biden's ideology is similar to their own views, with 39% saying Biden's views are further right than their own (32% slightly, just 7% by far), and 16% that his views are further left than theirs (9% slightly, 7% far).
Younger likely Democratic primary voters are more apt than older ones to see Biden as being to their right ideologically (55% of those likely primary voters younger than 50 say so compared with 20% among those age 50 or older). Among voters age 50 or older, 61% say Biden's ideology is similar to their own.
The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online September 14-18 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Results among the full sample of 2,107 New Hampshire adults drawn from a probability-based panel have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. Likely Democratic primary voters were identified through survey questions about their intention to vote. Results among 953 likely Democratic primary voters have an error margin of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.
