Imminent follow-through of actionable policy measures, especially those for the property sector, will be key to sustaining a China market rally after authorities made fresh pledges to support an ailing economy, Morgan Stanley says.
An early recovery in sentiment could recede in the absence of such measures, as investor confidence remains fragile, Laura Wang, the bank’s chief China strategist, wrote in a note. This is because investors have been disappointed by the lackluster and lukewarm policy easing measures since March and are reluctant to rush into Chinese stocks in a major way.
Chinese shares headed south in early Wednesday trading, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks major Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, down 1% after gaining 5.3% in the previous session. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index fell as much as 0.4%.
“More details for solutions for longer-term structural challenges need to follow through in the coming months – this, along with further stabilization in geopolitical uncertainty, is necessary for a more sustainable equity market recovery,” Wang wrote.
Morgan Stanley’s view came after Chinese assets from stocks to the yuan and corporate bonds rallied Tuesday on Beijing’s latest signaling of using further property easing and a consumption boost to revive the economy. The enthusiasm emerged after months of entrenched pessimism plagued Chinese markets against the backdrop of weakening data and geopolitical tensions.
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Wang pointed to late August or September, as a major Communist Party conference approaches, as a timeframe to anticipate more structural reform plans, centering around state-owned companies and debt-saddled local government financing vehicles.
(Updates with more comments, price moves and a chart)
