After months of an unusually acrimonious leadership battle, the International Organization for Migration next week holds elections to decide whether its current chief or his next-in-command will steer the UN agency for the next four years.
In a secret ballot on Monday, IOM's 175 member states face a choice between backing former Portuguese government minister Antonio Vitorino for a second term, or supporting his American deputy Amy Pope.
The race for the top job at the organisation -- which was founded in 1951 but only became a United Nations agency seven years ago -- comes at a critical time as global numbers of migrants soar.
The Geneva-based body is the leading international actor addressing the needs of some 281 million migrants in the world, according to a 2020 estimate.
The drawn-out campaign for the director-general position has caused a rift between Washington -- which has invested heavily in ushering an American back into a traditionally US-held leadership role -- and its European allies, observers say.
"It does seem to have caused a certain amount of diplomatic consternation," Megan Bradley, an associate professor and William Dawson Scholar at McGill University and an expert on the IOM, told AFP.
- 'A shock' -
Within the UN system, agency chiefs who wish to take on a second term are typically shooed in without challenge.
When Pope announced her candidacy in October, "it was a bit of a shock", a European diplomat in Geneva acknowledged to AFP on condition of anonymity.
"It was not seen as a friendly move," the diplomat said, lamenting that the bitter campaign "gave a bad signal" at a time when the United States and its European allies "need to show a united front" on the global stage.
Vitorino, a 66-year-old former Portuguese defence minister and deputy prime minister, meanwhile appeared defiant.
"All my predecessors for 70 years made two mandates, and I don't see any reason for a successful first mandate not to be followed by a second mandate," he told AFP in March.
But Pope, 49, who if elected would be the first woman to run the organisation, has said that the stakes are too high to stick to business as usual, insisting she has the vision needed to take IOM "into the 21st century".
- 'Long-standing tradition' -
With a long career in migration and disaster relief, including in the administration of former US president Barack Obama, she has high-level backing.
"IOM faces a pivotal moment. We believe Amy Pope is best suited to mobilise the institution," said US Assistant Secretary of State for population, refugees and migration Julieta Valls Noyes.
President Joe Biden himself weighed in this week, saying he knew from experience working directly with Pope that "she is the right person for the job".
Bradley said the US push might be less about the individuals involved than about the "long-standing tradition of having their candidate serve as the director-general".
The swelling importance of IOM as migration and displacement numbers soar, including due to climate change, "makes it all the more salient to the United States to try to reassert this kind of traditional hold on the helm of the organisation", she said.
Vitorino took the IOM reins in 2018, becoming only the second non-American to lead the organisation.
He won by acclamation after member states rebuffed a candidate accused of climate change denial and anti-Muslim bigotry proposed by then-president Donald Trump.
- 'Tight race' -
Observers say Vitorino is considered to have done a good job leading the rapidly expanding organisation, which today counts roughly 19,000 staff members and has seen its annual budget this year nearly double since 2018 to close to $3 billion.
He has particularly strong support from European countries.
"We think he has had a very strong first term," the European diplomat said.
But it remains less clear which way countries in other regions such as Africa and Asia might vote.
Both sides say they expect their candidate to win, but the European diplomat acknowledged "it will be a tight race".
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